Weather plays an enormous role in the way people feel, and the way they act. It may even play a role in how they vote. I’ve done the math, and gathered data all the way back to the 1870’s (as far back as weather data goes in Washington, DC). Can this weather historical information on previous election days tell us what to expect for our next Presidential election outcome?
Since 1872, in Washington, DC:
A Republican has never won an election with a maximum daily temperature greater than 74*F.
A Republican has never won an election with a maximum daily temperature less than 51*F.
A Republican has never won an election when the temperature was below freezing.
A Republican has never won an election when the low temperature of the day was higher than 56*F.
If it rains, there is a 62.5% chance a Democrat will be elected. If it rains more than 35/100ths of an inch, there’s a 100% chance, based on history, that a Democrat will be elected.
The average daily temperature is 53*F when a Democrat is elected, but 52*F when a Republican is elected
A Democrat has never won office with a difference between high and low daily temperatures more than 26*F.
The chance of a Republican outcome is 76.4% if the difference between the daily high temperature and daily low temperature is more than 20*F
Based on temperature alone, if a Republican is elected, there is a higher potential for energy usage to heat and cool the indoors to be lower than if a Democrat is elected.
Since 1950, there is a much higher fluctuation of El Niño and La Niña intensities during years in which a Republican is elected versus a Democrat.
If the low temperature is either 50*F or 51*F, there is an equal chance of election for both major-party candidates.
A Republican has never been elected when the high temperature was exactly 62, 65, 67, 69. Or 72*F, or when the low temperature was 35, 43, 44, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, or 55*F.
Likewise, a Democrat as never been elected with high temperatures of 61, 62, 63, 67, 68, 69, 70*F, or 72*F, or when the low temperature was 33, 35, 36, 37, 39, 41, 43, 44, 47, 50, 55, or 56*F.
Neither party has been elected on days with high temperatures of 62, 67, 69, or 72*F, or low temperatures of 35, 43, 44, 47, 50, or 55*F.
...that leaves room for a third party…
Dan Schreiber is an operational meteorologist, with experience