Severe Weather on it's way for Central Texas...please read below.
Through the course of the evening tonight, expect thunderstorms and rain showers to begin building through Central Texas. Thunderstorms have already developed in West Texas and are expected to push east through the evening and overnight hours.
The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has labeled the Sanderson-Del Rio-Sonora-Kerrville-San Antonio region (see diagram below) for a slight potential for severe thunderstorms overnight...beginning at around 7-8 PM in the Western Areas...impacting Del Rio around 9-11 PM, and the San Antonio area shortly after midnight and into the early morning hours. Timing isn't completely resolved by the forecast models, however...so stay alert for the local weather alerts. Much of Central Texas remains under-the-gun for marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. For the latest weather alerts issued by the National Weather Service, enter your zip-code in the box below.
Above...the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for this evening and into the overnight/early morning hours on Tuesday. Yellow indicates Slight Potential for Severe Thunderstorms while Green indicates Marginal Potential. Hazards include hail, winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Right now, models are showing the most concerning weather sticking along and just north of the Highway 90 Corridor...in the higher terrain of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. However, there is a possibility that a stray storm could move off the higher terrain and impact areas such as Del Rio, Brackettville, Uvalde, Eagle Pass, Hondo.....even potentially Carrizo Springs/Crystal City and Cotulla.
Current projections are (will likely change...can't use it as gospel...but are cool to look at):
To Be Clear- Large Hail, Damaging Winds (50+ mph), and Tornadoes are all possible overnight tonight through much of Central Texas. In the event of one of these hazardous weather features occur, seek shelter immediately...and if a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter in a basement of an interior room of your house.
Rainfall amounts could exceed two inches in isolated areas, although there is a general consensus of about 1-1.75" through the Edwards Plateau and less than an inch south of the Highway 90. It really looks like the higher terrain will get nearly all of the precipitation, although all it takes is one storm (like the one pictured in the forecasted radar image above dipping south into the Cotulla area) to drop several inches of rain anywhere through the Central Texas region.
The good news is...I personally don't think this will be a wide-spread outbreak (at least in Central Texas)...but the potential remains for very dangerous weather through the region.
On Tuesday, gusty winds will take over, clearing the area out...but this will drive increased Fire Weather Conditions through much of the area as winds could gust in excess of 40 mph, especially along elevated terrain.
Dan Schreiber is an operational meteorologist, with experience