Weather Science or Data Transcription? The Scary Future of Technology-Based Meteorology

Artist Depiction of GOES-16 Weather Satellite. Credit: Lockheed Martin

​You need a weather forecast for this weekend, so where do you go to find that forecast?  When I was a kid, I would read the weather forecast in the newspaper.  These days, we consult our fingertips – the smartphone, tablet, or computer.  These avenues of information are convenient, on-demand, and accessible anywhere an internet or wireless connection exists.  They work decently well, and fit the bill.  

It may surprise you that many of these forecasts have no meteorologist behind them – they are simply computed by advanced formulas and modelling software which are calibrated to spit out forecasts for anywhere on the planet.  No meteorologist, no expertise. 
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But, it gets worse.

​With the rise of supercomputers and the digital age, the art of meteorology has also changed.  Now, meteorologists have access to global weather data – real-time, historical, and future projections, also at their fingertips.  While weather stations used to be situated in areas where weather could be viewed for miles around, now it’s not uncommon to see a weather office with only a few windows – and no real need to even look outside.  All that information is available on the World Wide Web.  Colleges now teach meteorology students the science – and how to interpret atmospheric changes based on data accessible via the Internet alone.  

Group Captain James Stagg, British Royal Air Force Meteorologist During WWII.

The internet and the exponential advancement of technology over the past few decades have greatly improved the capabilities of the meteorology community.  Weather can be forecasted for anywhere in the world, from anywhere in the world.  Accuracy rates have skyrocketed, meteorological information has multiplied, and lives are being saved as a result. 
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All of this, however, hinges on one very important lifeline – technology, more specifically, the Internet, supercomputers, and electricity.  

Supercomputers of the European Centers for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, often cited as the most accurate global weather model

One of my favorite historical meteorology events is the story of Group Captain James Stagg, a Royal Air Force (Great Britain) meteorologist. Stagg is credited with persuading General Dwight D. Eisenhower – the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe during World War II (and then became the US President) – to change the date of D-Day to June 6th, 1944, from June 5th, because forecasted weather would have put the allied forces invading the beaches of Normandy at a disadvantage.  This forecast – correct as it was – greatly contributed to the Allied victory on D-Day, and turned the tides of World War II. The internet was not invented until several decades later, the first weather satellite was not in orbit for another 15 years, and weather radar was only mistakenly stumbled upon when WWII aircraft radar seemed to be cluttered with no other explanation other than “weather interference”. 

​So how did Group Captain Stagg make such an important forecast with no satellite, radar, supercomputer, or internet?  In the WWII era, the luxuries of computer-based weather analysis did not exist.  In other words, there was a lot of leg-work to be done to compile a forecast – and the only way to do this was to get on the telephone and talk to meteorologists in other locations and ask for their weather reports – then hit the drawing table, by hand, with skills logged in the brain of an experienced meteorologist. 

​Without the internet, satellite and radar data would not be widely accessible – if viewable at all.  Supercomputers could not ingest the data used to compute millions and billions of lines of coding that produce weather forecasting models.  Weather reports from around the globe would no longer be accessible in an instant with the click of a few buttons.  Changes in the atmosphere would often go unnoticed, weather warnings for severe weather would not be widely disseminated, and weather forecasting – as we’ve come to know it – would come to a halt.  

Hand-drawn weather charts for June 1st - 4th, 1944, Credit: James Fleming, "Sverre Petterssen, the Bergen School, and the Forecasts for D-Day" (2004)

A Weather Surveillance Radar (WSR-1), circa 1947.

Here within lies the present-day problem, and in my opinion, a major threat to the safety and security of society.  Old-timer meteorologists are shrinking in numbers, and their skills of extremely limited-data forecasting along with them.  Universities don’t concentrate much – if at all – on limited data weather forecasting and analysis, and the U.S. National Weather Service relies heavily on supercomputers to compile terabytes of weather information together into a readable output for data analysis.  

A Weather Model Chart of the Jet Stream from the U.S. National Weather Service

A standard operational meteorologist's computer workstation

Is meteorology losing its skill? Has it turned from a science to an art of data transcription – simply translating what the computer says? 

Don’t get me wrong – more is known now about meteorology than ever before, much thanks to computers and the internet. But, is it really known?  Is the source of all of our knowledge packed into one basket – technology? Does the computer actually do the remembering, and meteorologist have to “log-in” to have access to that knowledge? Worse yet, what happens, when that technology - the bank of that knowledge - becomes inaccessible?  

In an age of electromagnetic pulse weaponry threatening to cripple our electrical grid, advanced cyber warfare that is ever-more challenging to combat, and more trivial threats like uncertainty in net neutrality in the United States – it appears reckless to hinge an entire field of science – responsible for protection of life and property – as well as national security - on technology itself.
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