The first full week of Fall is expected to feel just like that!
I’ve made a “four-panel” of some of the things that meteorologists use to determine heavy rainfall potential, and I’ll explain below how we use them.
On the upper left corner, you will see forecast-model derived Precipitable Water. The best way to explain this is to think of the atmosphere like a sponge.
This week, the forecast calls for over 2 inches of precipitable water – which is near the maximum capacity of the atmosphere – and generally means that rain is likely. If the atmosphere can continue to be “fed” more moisture as it is raining (and this is common), then heavy rain and flooding are possible.
The bottom left panel shows the Jet Stream. Generally, the most energy with the Jet stream is found just to the right of the base of the trough – which happens to pinpoint much of Central and West Texas. The trough itself sits over the Western United States and shows where the lowest pressure and coldest air are aloft.
Dan Schreiber is an operational meteorologist, with experience