July was a long, hot month in Del Rio. With sixteen days at or above 100°F and an average temperature 1.9°F warmer than normal, High Pressure, as predicted, played a very large role in setting 2017's high temperature record at a current 107°F while keeping rainfall at just over a half-inch in Del Rio locally through the month.
In fact, much of Texas is either in - or approaching - drought conditions to start off the month of August due to high temperatures combined with lower-than-normal rainfall in July.
Overall, confidence in this forecast remains mediocre. Just two weeks ago, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a forecast for August indicated above-normal temperatures, not below-normal as their current forecast shows. Both indicated wetter-than normal conditions, but so did July's forecast - which turned out to be somewhat of a flop.
However, after some personal investigation comparing the Del Rio 2016-2017 temperature trends to those of 1999-2000 - largely because of the similarities of experiencing warmer than normal winters, early spring seasons, and hot July's - I found that in August of 2000, temperatures were cooler than experienced in July (even though August is typically warmer than July) - which, when compared to the trends of 2017, could stand to back-up the cooler-than-normal forecast, statistically speaking.
If, as advertised, August is wetter-than-normal, it would be no surprise to see cooler-than-normal weather simply due to the excess of cloud cover overhead. Not only do clouds block incoming solar radiation, moisture itself takes longer to heat than dry air, basically not allowing afternoon temperatures to peak quite as high as possible under drier conditions.
With that being said, I'll leave you with a cool infrared satellite loop from the University of Wisconsin for the past 7 days. I could watch this over and over again!
Dan Schreiber is an operational meteorologist, with experience