The NWS Climate Prediction Center continues to label Texas has "warmer than normal", however, this is hardly substantiated and ls largely carried over from the previous Presidential agenda. In fact, in June - Del Rio's average temperature was just below normal (although very marginally).
The trend continues with CPC's forecast - so, as skeptical as I am, forecast guidance does indicate strong, upper-level High Pressure over the Central United States over the next month - which is scientifically related to widespread warm weather.
Locally, however, especially along the Rio Grande Plains, our temperatures are largely dependent on cloud cover - especially during the afternoon. So, if the High Pressure settles in a tad too far north this month, the local atmosphere may continue to route significant moisture (cloud cover) up the Rio and into the region, keeping our overnight temperatures warm, but afternoon temperatures cooler than normal (although it will still feel quite hot, no doubt). Heat Advisories will likely the the story for much of the month, generally issued for Heat Index values (computed based on temperature and relative humidity) generally above about 105°F - or in other words, temperatures that "feel" like 105°F, usually because of the high humidity.
The positioning of the High Pressure also will dictate moisture sources and atmospheric dynamics/energy potential for rainfall, although CPC projects the Del Rio area as "normal". Should we find ourselves too far south of the High Pressure, we could see substantially more rainfall - and even possibly tropical weather. During the summer locally, rainfall is often accumulated in pockets due to afternoon thunderstorms. It is uncommon for severe weather in July in Del Rio. However, strong thunderstorm wind gusts are the main threat. It is always a good idea to keep your eyes on the Gulf of Mexico as well...as one Tropical Storm has made landfall this year.
Dan Schreiber is an operational meteorologist, with experience