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Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Southern Missouri are under the gun again for some more heavy rainfall and potential (highly likely) widespread flooding. This widespread rain event is caused by three major weather phenomena all coming together at once:
- Strong low-level moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico
- Strong upper-level moisture influx thanks to Hurricane Sandra in the East Pacific (moving onshore to Mainland Mexico)
- Strong Cold Front pushing out of the Central Plains, but stalling in Central Texas due to strong Gulf flow
These three features characterize heavy rain, and we've seen it before just recently (October 24th-25th with Hurricane Patricia). I expect this event to begin to kick off around nightfall Thursday and persist through Sunday Morning. After the Cold Front passes during the day on Friday, portions of North Texas, as well as Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri will likely see widespread ice pellets (ice storm) and winter-like weather as the temperatures will plummet into the low 30's.
The amount of rainfall expected is significant, especially through Northern Hill Country, North Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas may exceed 10 inches. South of the Interstate 10 in Texas, likely only 1-3 inches.
See the attached Weather Prediction Center Outlook.
Obvious Hazards: Flooding (Widespread) and Icy Roads (North Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas/Missouri)
Stay tuned to the National Weather Service for severe weather updates and local emergency management authorities for more instructions.
Dan Schreiber is an operational meteorologist, with experience